diabetes_diagnosisOpenML #37 ↗Diabetes
Clinical diagnostic benchmark comprising 768 patient records designed to predict the onset of diabetes mellitus in high-risk adult females based on diagnostic and metabolic biomarkers.
Business Objective: Diabetes
01Business Context
Primary care physicians, metabolic health clinics, and health insurance providers seek early-stage risk stratifications to identify individuals at elevated risk of Type 2 diabetes before irreversible vascular or organ damage occurs.
02Analytical Objective
Accurately predict binary diabetes onset (tested_positive vs. tested_negative) utilizing non-invasive demographic factors and routine clinical lab measurements.
03Economic & Decision Impact
Enables proactive preventative interventions (lifestyle programs, Metformin therapy) reducing long-term chronic care expenditure by up to 60%. Mitigates severe false negatives (delayed diagnosis leading to neuropathy, nephropathy, and cardiovascular events) while controlling false positives to avoid unnecessary clinical anxiety and second-line diagnostic costs.
On this classic 768-row tabular benchmark, optimized tree ensembles (LightGBM, XGBoost, Random Forest) traditionally achieve ROC-AUC scores between 0.82 and 0.84, often hampered by noisy zero-value physiological readings. TabICL and Carla in-context foundation models achieve competitive zero-shot discrimination (AUC ~0.83) instantly without hyperparameter tuning, handling sparse physiological representations directly in-context.
Target & Feature Column Definitions
Exhaustive business definitions, measurement units, roles, and target variables across all 9 columns.
| Col | Variable / Feature Name | Role | Type | Unit / Scale | Description & Business Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | diabetes_diagnosisDiabetes Diagnosis Outcome | TARGET | CAT | — | Binary diagnostic indicator reflecting whether the patient was tested positive ('tested_positive') or negative ('tested_negative') for diabetes according to WHO criteria. |
| B | pregnancy_countNumber of Pregnancies | Feature | NUM | count | Total number of times the patient has been pregnant; associated with gestational metabolic strain and insulin resistance. |
| C | glucose_concentration_2h2-Hour Plasma Glucose | Feature | NUM | mg/dL | Plasma glucose concentration measured 2 hours after an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Key diagnostic indicator where values >= 200 mg/dL indicate diabetes. |
| D | diastolic_blood_pressureDiastolic Blood Pressure | Feature | NUM | mm Hg | Diastolic blood pressure reading; elevated values are correlated with metabolic syndrome and systemic vascular stiffness. |
| E | triceps_skinfold_thicknessTriceps Skinfold Thickness | Feature | NUM | mm | Measurement of the fold of skin and subcutaneous fat over the triceps muscle, serving as an anthropometric proxy for peripheral body fat percentage. |
| F | serum_insulin_2h2-Hour Serum Insulin | Feature | NUM | mu U/ml | Serum insulin level measured 2 hours after glucose loading; assesses pancreatic beta-cell response and peripheral insulin sensitivity. |
| G | body_mass_indexBody Mass Index (BMI) | Feature | NUM | kg/m² | Body mass index calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared (kg/m²), indicating obesity levels. |
| H | diabetes_pedigree_functionDiabetes Pedigree Function | Feature | NUM | score | Continuous genetic scoring function synthesizing family history of diabetes to estimate genetic risk predisposition. |
| I | patient_age_yearsPatient Age | Feature | NUM | years | Chronological age of the patient in years (all subjects are females >= 21 years old). |
Interactive Data Table
Explore rows, feature values, and target labels for Diabetes.
TabICLv2 WebGPU Benchmark Results
Complete performance metrics on persisted IID or non-IID evaluation splits, executed 100% locally in the browser sandbox.
| Evaluation Split | Train Rows | Test Rows | Split Duration?Wall-clock inference time taken for this evaluation split running 100% locally via WebGPU.Learn more → | Accuracy?Proportion of correct test predictions across all classes.Google ML Guide & Details → | ROC-AUC?Area under the ROC curve evaluating ranking capability across all thresholds.Google ML Guide & Details → | F1 Score?Harmonic mean of Precision and Recall, robust against class imbalance.Learn more → | Precision?Proportion of predicted positives that were actually positive.Google ML Guide & Details → | Recall?Proportion of actual positive cases successfully captured.Google ML Guide & Details → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 / F1 | 512 | 256 | 1.17s | 78.13% | 0.8659 | 0.6543 | 0.7361 | 0.5889 |
| R1 / F2 | 512 | 256 | 1.21s | 76.95% | 0.8340 | 0.6242 | 0.7206 | 0.5506 |
| R1 / F3 | 512 | 256 | 1.19s | 75.39% | 0.8187 | 0.6441 | 0.6477 | 0.6404 |
| R2 / F1 | 512 | 256 | 1.17s | 75.00% | 0.8275 | 0.5949 | 0.6912 | 0.5222 |
| R2 / F2 | 512 | 256 | 1.24s | 78.91% | 0.8754 | 0.6538 | 0.7612 | 0.5730 |
| R2 / F3 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 73.44% | 0.8151 | 0.5952 | 0.6329 | 0.5618 |
| R3 / F1 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 75.78% | 0.8240 | 0.6517 | 0.6591 | 0.6444 |
| R3 / F2 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 75.78% | 0.8483 | 0.6026 | 0.7015 | 0.5281 |
| R3 / F3 | 512 | 256 | 1.21s | 75.78% | 0.8365 | 0.5921 | 0.7143 | 0.5056 |
| R4 / F1 | 512 | 256 | 1.14s | 76.56% | 0.8401 | 0.6296 | 0.7083 | 0.5667 |
| R4 / F2 | 512 | 256 | 1.16s | 71.88% | 0.8116 | 0.5500 | 0.6197 | 0.4944 |
| R4 / F3 | 512 | 256 | 1.21s | 78.13% | 0.8498 | 0.6667 | 0.7089 | 0.6292 |
| R5 / F1 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 73.05% | 0.8138 | 0.5965 | 0.6296 | 0.5667 |
| R5 / F2 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 78.13% | 0.8517 | 0.6627 | 0.7143 | 0.6180 |
| R5 / F3 | 512 | 256 | 1.14s | 78.13% | 0.8541 | 0.6456 | 0.7391 | 0.5730 |
| R6 / F1 | 512 | 256 | 1.14s | 78.13% | 0.8662 | 0.6500 | 0.7429 | 0.5778 |
| R6 / F2 | 512 | 256 | 1.19s | 73.44% | 0.8018 | 0.5952 | 0.6329 | 0.5618 |
| R6 / F3 | 512 | 256 | 1.13s | 75.39% | 0.8321 | 0.5987 | 0.6912 | 0.5281 |
| R7 / F1 | 512 | 256 | 1.14s | 76.95% | 0.8407 | 0.6509 | 0.6962 | 0.6111 |
| R7 / F2 | 512 | 256 | 1.14s | 76.56% | 0.8276 | 0.6296 | 0.6986 | 0.5730 |
| R7 / F3 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 76.56% | 0.8593 | 0.6104 | 0.7231 | 0.5281 |
| R8 / F1 | 512 | 256 | 1.17s | 75.00% | 0.8205 | 0.6145 | 0.6711 | 0.5667 |
| R8 / F2 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 76.95% | 0.8456 | 0.6335 | 0.7083 | 0.5730 |
| R8 / F3 | 512 | 256 | 1.16s | 77.34% | 0.8458 | 0.6184 | 0.7460 | 0.5281 |
| R9 / F1 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 76.17% | 0.8274 | 0.6514 | 0.6706 | 0.6333 |
| R9 / F2 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 75.78% | 0.8495 | 0.5974 | 0.7077 | 0.5169 |
| R9 / F3 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 74.61% | 0.8418 | 0.5963 | 0.6667 | 0.5393 |
| R10 / F1 | 512 | 256 | 1.17s | 76.95% | 0.8420 | 0.6335 | 0.7183 | 0.5667 |
| R10 / F2 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 72.66% | 0.8022 | 0.5732 | 0.6267 | 0.5281 |
| R10 / F3 | 512 | 256 | 1.15s | 76.17% | 0.8423 | 0.6347 | 0.6795 | 0.5955 |
| Mean ± Std | — | — | 1.16s | 75.99% ± 1.75% | 0.837 ± 0.018 | 0.622 ± 0.028 | 0.692 | 0.566 |
Foundation Models vs Traditional ML Baselines
Side-by-side evaluation of our in-browser Carla engine (WebGPU), open-source tabular foundation models, and OpenML baselines.
| Rank | Algorithm / Model | Model Family | Runtime | Predictive Accuracy?Proportion of correct test predictions across cross-validation splits.Google ML Guide & Details → | ROC-AUC?Area under the ROC curve evaluating ranking capability.Learn more → | F-Measure?Harmonic mean of precision and recall.Learn more → | Reference / Repo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | AttributeSelectedClassifier HoeffdingTree | Decision Tree | Python | 77.34% | 0.8190 | 0.7665 | OpenML #577230 ↗ |
| #2 | ClassificationViaRegression M5P | Decision Tree | Python | 77.34% | 0.8304 | 0.7656 | OpenML #578402 ↗ |
| #3 | AttributeSelectedClassifier SMO PolyKernel | Support Vector Machine (SVM) | Python | 77.08% | 0.7132 | 0.7592 | OpenML #575789 ↗ |
| #4 | AttributeSelectedClassifier Bagging JRip | Bagging Ensemble | Python | 77.08% | 0.7984 | 0.7615 | OpenML #576370 ↗ |
| #5 | AttributeSelectedClassifier Bagging LMT | Bagging Ensemble | Python | 77.08% | 0.8248 | 0.7666 | OpenML #576534 ↗ |
| #6 | AttributeSelectedClassifier LMT | Machine Learning Model | Python | 77.08% | 0.8212 | 0.7622 | OpenML #577469 ↗ |
| #7 | RandomForest | Random Forest | Python | 76.95% | 0.8312 | 0.7679 | OpenML #573702 ↗ |
| #8 | Bagging REPTree | Decision Tree | Python | 76.95% | 0.8270 | 0.7648 | OpenML #574537 ↗ |
| #9 | KernelLogisticRegression RBFKernel | Logistic / Linear Model | Python | 76.82% | 0.8381 | 0.7618 | OpenML #323386 ↗ |
| #10 | SMO PolyKernel | Support Vector Machine (SVM) | Python | 76.82% | 0.7129 | 0.7577 | OpenML #550234 ↗ |
| #11 | TabPFN v3 | Tabular Foundation Model | PyTorch/Python | 76.73% | 0.8393 | 0.6354 | PriorLabs/tabpfn ↗ |
| #12 | EXAONE Tabular | Tabular Foundation Model | PyTorch/Python | 76.50% | 0.8362 | 0.6332 | LGAI-Research/EXAONE-Tabular ↗ |
| #13 | Google TabFM v1.0 | Tabular Foundation Model | PyTorch/Python | 76.42% | 0.8377 | 0.6335 | google-research/tabfm ↗ |
| #14 | nanotabicl Vanilla | Tabular Foundation Model | PyTorch/Python | 76.20% | 0.8368 | 0.6252 | soda-inria/nanotabicl ↗ |
| #15 | Streaming nanotabicl | Tabular Foundation Model | PyTorch/Python | 76.16% | 0.8368 | 0.6248 | soda-inria/nanotabicl ↗ |
| #16 | Full TabICLv2 (PyTorch Reference) | Tabular Foundation Model | PyTorch/Python | 76.16% | 0.8368 | 0.6248 | soda-inria/tabicl ↗ |
| #17 | Carla Engine (TabICLv2 WebGPU) | Tabular Foundation Model | Browser | 75.99% | 0.8370 | 0.6217 | 100% In-Browser |
Variable Schema & Summary Distributions
Observed numerical ranges, category cardinalities, missing rates, and sample values across 768 rows.
| Col | Variable Name | Type | Missing | Distinct | Summary Stats / Distribution | Sample Values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | diabetes_diagnosisTARGET | CAT | 0 | 2 | 2 cats: tested_negative, tested_positive | tested_positivetested_negativetested_positive |
| B | pregnancy_count | NUM | 0 | 17 | [0, 17] μ=3.8 σ=3.4 | 618 |
| C | glucose_concentration_2h | NUM | 0 | 136 | [0, 199] μ=120.9 σ=32.0 | 14885183 |
| D | diastolic_blood_pressure | NUM | 0 | 47 | [0, 122] μ=69.1 σ=19.3 | 726664 |
| E | triceps_skinfold_thickness | NUM | 0 | 51 | [0, 99] μ=20.5 σ=15.9 | 35290 |
| F | serum_insulin_2h | NUM | 0 | 186 | [0, 846] μ=79.8 σ=115.2 | 000 |
| G | body_mass_index | NUM | 0 | 248 | [0, 67.1] μ=32.0 σ=7.9 | 33.626.623.3 |
| H | diabetes_pedigree_function | NUM | 0 | 517 | [0.078, 2.42] μ=0.5 σ=0.3 | 0.6270.3510.672 |
| I | patient_age_years | NUM | 0 | 52 | [21, 81] μ=33.2 σ=11.8 | 503132 |
Frequently Asked Questions: Diabetes
Common questions regarding the Diabetes dataset, machine learning task formulations, and in-browser tabular inference.
What is the Diabetes (Pima Indians) dataset used for?
The Diabetes dataset is a standard diagnostic machine learning benchmark containing 768 patient cases used to train and evaluate classification algorithms for predicting the onset of Type 2 diabetes based on 8 clinical and metabolic features.
Can I run zero-server predictions on this dataset in Google Sheets?
Yes, Carla HQ enables zero-server in-context tabular prediction directly in spreadsheets using TabICL foundation models, allowing instant scoring without manual model training or backend infrastructure.
What machine learning models perform best on the Diabetes dataset?
Gradient boosting frameworks like LightGBM, XGBoost, and CatBoost alongside in-context foundation models like TabICL typically achieve the strongest classification performance, yielding ROC-AUC scores in the 0.82-0.84 range.
Test TabICLv2 on Diabetes Yourself
Open the pre-loaded Google Sheet and let Carla configure the target and task for local, zero-cloud tabular machine learning.
Launch Carla
Click once to open the spreadsheet and Carla side panel together.
Review the Setup
Carla selects the dataset target and task from this page automatically.
Evaluate & Predict
Run predictions and compute metrics with zero server uploads.
Provenance & Attribution
https://www.jair.org/index.php/jair/article/view/10129