---
id: "us-consumption-1y"
slug: "us-consumption-1y"
name: "US Macroeconomic Consumption & Disposable Income"
domain: "Finance & Macroeconomics"
taskType: "time_series_forecasting"
numRows: 1984
numColumns: 3
targetColumn: "target"
primaryMetric: "Timestral-123M SQL"
primaryScore: "3.5365"
parquetUrl: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/carlahq/demo-timeseries-benchmark-containers/resolve/main/containers/us-consumption-1y/dataset.parquet"
spreadsheetUrl: "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TrHDQ6arQTQlhLuOQcbgDnLCi0N3GDDJpLiDCkr5ffg/edit?usp=sharing"
canonicalUrl: "https://carlahq.eu/datasets/us-consumption-1y"
---

# Dataset: US Macroeconomic Consumption & Disposable Income (us-consumption-1y)

> Annual macroeconomic benchmark tracking 31 US personal consumption expenditure and income categories over 64 years to forecast a 5-year medium-term horizon for fiscal planning and asset allocation.

## Dataset Overview

| Attribute | Value |
| :--- | :--- |
| **Task Type** | `time_series_forecasting` |
| **Business Domain** | Finance & Macroeconomics |
| **Target Column** | `target` |
| **Rows (Instances)** | 1,984 |
| **Features (Columns)** | 3 |
| **Primary Evaluation Metric** | Timestral-123M SQL |
| **Best Benchmark Score** | **3.5365** |
| **Prediction Horizon** | 5 steps |
| **Seasonality** | 1 |
| **Time Frequency** | Yearly |
| **Timestamp Column** | `timestamp` |
| **Entity / ID Column** | `id` |

## Business Decision Context
**Context:** Treasury desks, sovereign wealth funds, corporate strategic planning teams, and economic policy units require robust medium-term projections of consumer demand components (e.g., nondurables, clothing and footwear, services) and disposable income to steer multi-year capital deployment, liquidity buffers, and fiscal tax revenue forecasts.
**Objective:** Accurately predict annual consumption expenditures and income aggregates across 31 individual macroeconomic categories over a 5-year forecast horizon.
**Decision Impact:** Under-forecasting leads to mispriced sovereign bond yields, underfunded entitlement budgets, and inventory shortages in macro-sensitive sectors. Over-forecasting precipitates severe over-leverage, premature capital expenditure expansion, and stranded balance sheet debt during economic contraction phases.

## Feature Schema
| Column Name | Data Type | Role | Distinct Values | Missing Values (%) | Description |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| `id` | `categorical` | identifier | 31 | 0 | Categorical identifier representing the specific US personal consumption expenditure or disposable personal income component (e.g., clothing_and_footwear). |
| `timestamp` | `datetime` | timestamp | 64 | 0 | Annual calendar timestamp marking the end of each economic observation year (ISO 8601 format). |
| `target` | `numeric` | target | 1,976 | 0 | Real or nominal aggregate personal consumption expenditure or disposable income value for the corresponding category. |

## FEV Benchmark Leaderboard (AutoGluon Time-Series Suite)
Empirical probabilistic evaluation across standard foundation models and baselines:

| Rank | Method / Model | Family | Organization | SQL Win Rate (%) | SQL Skill Score | MASE Win Rate (%) | Median Latency | Execution |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| 1 | **Timestral-209M** | Foundation Model | — | 87.7% | 50.39 | 86.0% | 0.51s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 2 | **Timestral-123M (Carla Engine)** | Foundation Model | — | 86.8% | 50.18 | 85.0% | 0.32s | WebGPU (Browser / Sheets) |
| 3 | **TimeRSI** | Closed-Source API | — | 84.8% | 51.24 | 83.8% | 2512s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 4 | **t0-gamma** | Foundation Model | — | 84.4% | 49.42 | 81.8% | 4.38s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 5 | **Timestral-28M** | Foundation Model | — | 79.2% | 48.42 | 77.0% | 0.11s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 6 | **timesfm-3** | Foundation Model | — | 78.5% | 48.99 | 77.0% | 3.41s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 7 | **ChakraTS** | Baseline | — | 78.2% | 48.14 | 79.5% | 14.22s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 8 | **Lingjiang2.0** | Baseline | — | 73.9% | 47.02 | 71.3% | 8.89s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 9 | **Chronos-2** | Foundation Model | — | 70.4% | 47.28 | 68.4% | 0.84s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 10 | **timeh2o-v1-tiny** | Foundation Model | — | 69.9% | 45.49 | 67.0% | 0.19s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 11 | **Timestral-5M** | Foundation Model | — | 69.0% | 46.19 | 67.7% | 0.04s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 12 | **Toto-2.0-2.5B** | Baseline | — | 67.5% | 44.42 | 65.7% | 5.58s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 13 | **t0-beta** | Foundation Model | — | 67.4% | 46.65 | 64.5% | 2.29s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 14 | **Toto-2.0-1B** | Baseline | — | 66.4% | 44.43 | 65.5% | 2.48s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 15 | **TiRex-2** | Foundation Model | — | 65.8% | 45.50 | 63.4% | 0.27s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |

## Provenance & Downloadable Artifacts
- **Dataset Parquet File:** [Direct Parquet Download](https://huggingface.co/datasets/carlahq/demo-timeseries-benchmark-containers/resolve/main/containers/us-consumption-1y/dataset.parquet)
- **Google Sheets Interactive Demo:** [Open in Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TrHDQ6arQTQlhLuOQcbgDnLCi0N3GDDJpLiDCkr5ffg/edit?usp=sharing)
- **Academic Paper / Citation:** [Read Research Paper](https://otexts.com/fpp3/)
- **Canonical HTML Page:** [https://carlahq.eu/datasets/us-consumption-1y](https://carlahq.eu/datasets/us-consumption-1y)