---
id: "solar-with-weather-1h"
slug: "solar-with-weather-1h"
name: "Solar Photovoltaic Power Output with Weather"
domain: "Energy & Utilities"
taskType: "time_series_forecasting"
numRows: 49648
numColumns: 12
targetColumn: "target"
primaryMetric: "Timestral-123M SQL"
primaryScore: "0.6585"
parquetUrl: "https://huggingface.co/datasets/carlahq/demo-timeseries-benchmark-containers/resolve/main/containers/solar-with-weather-1h/dataset.parquet"
spreadsheetUrl: "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1w11GjfOODfab89jxQwb0-1zhLsfU3BHGBsgB3Sbdslg/edit?usp=sharing"
canonicalUrl: "https://carlahq.eu/datasets/solar-with-weather-1h"
---

# Dataset: Solar Photovoltaic Power Output with Weather (solar-with-weather-1h)

> Hourly single-asset solar photovoltaic generation benchmark spanning 49,648 observations paired with meteorological covariates for 24-hour day-ahead renewable power forecasting.

## Dataset Overview

| Attribute | Value |
| :--- | :--- |
| **Task Type** | `time_series_forecasting` |
| **Business Domain** | Energy & Utilities |
| **Target Column** | `target` |
| **Rows (Instances)** | 49,648 |
| **Features (Columns)** | 12 |
| **Primary Evaluation Metric** | Timestral-123M SQL |
| **Best Benchmark Score** | **0.6585** |
| **Prediction Horizon** | 24 steps |
| **Seasonality** | 24 |
| **Time Frequency** | Hourly |
| **Timestamp Column** | `timestamp` |
| **Entity / ID Column** | `id` |

## Business Decision Context
**Context:** Independent power producers (IPPs), transmission system operators (TSOs), and utility trading desks must submit firm day-ahead generation schedules to wholesale electricity markets (e.g. EPEX SPOT, CAISO, PJM) every 24 hours.
**Objective:** Forecast hourly solar power generation (target) across a rolling 24-hour horizon (H=24) using historical solar telemetry and known numerical weather predictions (NWP).
**Decision Impact:** Over-forecasting incurs severe balancing settlement penalties, real-time dispatch curtailment, and market imbalance fees; under-forecasting forces grid dispatchers to commit costly thermal peaker plants or forgo peak power prices during sunny intervals.

## Feature Schema
| Column Name | Data Type | Role | Distinct Values | Missing Values (%) | Description |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| `id` | `categorical` | identifier | 1 | 0 | Unique categorical identifier indexing the photovoltaic asset or tracking installation |
| `timestamp` | `datetime` | timestamp | 49,648 | 0 | ISO 8601 hourly timestamp indicating the start of each observation interval |
| `target` | `numeric` | target | 10,349 | 0 | Actual active solar power generation measured at the photovoltaic inverter |
| `day_length` | `numeric` | known_covariate | 39 | 456 | Total daylight duration calculated for the geographic coordinates |
| `humidity` | `numeric` | known_covariate | 79 | 456 | Ambient relative humidity percentage measured or forecast at surface level |
| `pressure` | `numeric` | known_covariate | 71 | 456 | Barometric surface pressure influencing air density and cloud formation |
| `rain_1h` | `numeric` | known_covariate | 311 | 456 | Liquid precipitation accumulated over the preceding 1-hour interval |
| `snow_1h` | `numeric` | known_covariate | 129 | 456 | Snowfall depth or liquid equivalent accumulated over the preceding 1-hour interval |
| `temp` | `numeric` | known_covariate | 503 | 456 | Outside air temperature affecting PV panel semiconductor operating efficiency |
| `wind_speed` | `numeric` | known_covariate | 136 | 456 | Horizontal wind speed contributing to convective cooling of solar panels |
| `clouds_all` | `numeric` | past_covariate | 101 | 456 | Observed percentage of total cloud cover attenuating direct solar irradiance |
| `global_horizontal_irradiance` | `numeric` | past_covariate | 8,553 | 456 | Total solar radiation incident on a horizontal surface at ground level |

## FEV Benchmark Leaderboard (AutoGluon Time-Series Suite)
Empirical probabilistic evaluation across standard foundation models and baselines:

| Rank | Method / Model | Family | Organization | SQL Win Rate (%) | SQL Skill Score | MASE Win Rate (%) | Median Latency | Execution |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| 1 | **Timestral-209M** | Foundation Model | — | 87.7% | 50.39 | 86.0% | 0.51s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 2 | **Timestral-123M (Carla Engine)** | Foundation Model | — | 86.8% | 50.18 | 85.0% | 0.32s | WebGPU (Browser / Sheets) |
| 3 | **TimeRSI** | Closed-Source API | — | 84.8% | 51.24 | 83.8% | 2512s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 4 | **t0-gamma** | Foundation Model | — | 84.4% | 49.42 | 81.8% | 4.38s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 5 | **Timestral-28M** | Foundation Model | — | 79.2% | 48.42 | 77.0% | 0.11s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 6 | **timesfm-3** | Foundation Model | — | 78.5% | 48.99 | 77.0% | 3.41s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 7 | **ChakraTS** | Baseline | — | 78.2% | 48.14 | 79.5% | 14.22s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 8 | **Lingjiang2.0** | Baseline | — | 73.9% | 47.02 | 71.3% | 8.89s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 9 | **Chronos-2** | Foundation Model | — | 70.4% | 47.28 | 68.4% | 0.84s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 10 | **timeh2o-v1-tiny** | Foundation Model | — | 69.9% | 45.49 | 67.0% | 0.19s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 11 | **Timestral-5M** | Foundation Model | — | 69.0% | 46.19 | 67.7% | 0.04s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 12 | **Toto-2.0-2.5B** | Baseline | — | 67.5% | 44.42 | 65.7% | 5.58s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 13 | **t0-beta** | Foundation Model | — | 67.4% | 46.65 | 64.5% | 2.29s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 14 | **Toto-2.0-1B** | Baseline | — | 66.4% | 44.43 | 65.5% | 2.48s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |
| 15 | **TiRex-2** | Foundation Model | — | 65.8% | 45.50 | 63.4% | 0.27s | Server (CUDA / PyTorch) |

## Provenance & Downloadable Artifacts
- **Dataset Parquet File:** [Direct Parquet Download](https://huggingface.co/datasets/carlahq/demo-timeseries-benchmark-containers/resolve/main/containers/solar-with-weather-1h/dataset.parquet)
- **Google Sheets Interactive Demo:** [Open in Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1w11GjfOODfab89jxQwb0-1zhLsfU3BHGBsgB3Sbdslg/edit?usp=sharing)
- **Canonical HTML Page:** [https://carlahq.eu/datasets/solar-with-weather-1h](https://carlahq.eu/datasets/solar-with-weather-1h)