---
modelA: "LightGBM"
modelB: "TabPFN-TS-3"
canonicalSlug: "lightgbm-vs-tabpfn-ts-3"
winsA: 9
winsB: 91
ties: 0
winRateA: "9.0%"
winRateB: "91.0%"
avgLatencyA: "3.03s"
avgLatencyB: "235s"
canonicalUrl: "https://carlahq.eu/datasets/comparison/time-series/lightgbm-vs-tabpfn-ts-3"
---

# LightGBM vs TabPFN-TS-3 Time-Series Forecasting Benchmark

> Empirical probabilistic forecasting evaluation across 100 fev-bench standardized tasks.

## Head-to-Head Scoreboard
| Metric | LightGBM Lag-Feature Baseline (AutoGluon) | Prior Labs TabPFN-TS-3 | Head-to-Head Advantage |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **Wins on Tasks** | **9** (9.0%) | 91 (91.0%) | TabPFN-TS-3 leads (0 ties) |
| **Global SQL Win Rate** | 17.8% | 52.37% | Evaluated over 100 standardized tasks |
| **Global SQL Skill Score** | 20.97 | 43.14 | Normalized vs Seasonal Naive baseline |
| **Median Latency** | 3.03s | 235s | Per-forecast window latency |
| **Browser WebGPU** | Python / Server Runtime | Server / Cloud Only (Prior Labs API) | — |
| **License** | MIT | Research & Non-Commercial | — |

## Curated Benchmark Datasets
| Task / Dataset | LightGBM SQL | TabPFN-TS-3 SQL | Advantage | Winner | Interactive Demo |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| [BizITobs Cloud Infrastructure Telemetry](/datasets/bizitobs-l2c-5t.md) | 0.7531 | 0.3703 | 50.8% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19v8yC8Sr9u8YmFlS2YhibjeRT6bkEHT2o_GoDLJAh8w/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Boomlet Smart Meter Building Energy](/datasets/boomlet-1282.md) | 0.7318 | 0.4126 | 43.6% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-8crpjGNI7o6tPQvOJyh-V-m0TA4k6H9WnLDEF3EOig/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Boomlet Smart Meter Building Energy](/datasets/boomlet-1676.md) | 0.7812 | 0.6017 | 23.0% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LnWDsBH3KVPiNwx27lUoglAPz5M5Fe9DG6dhVtiiUU0/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Boomlet Smart Meter Building Energy](/datasets/boomlet-619.md) | 1.3661 | 0.3262 | 76.1% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_7iHke0dkjP0e7ow-638qzrxZJKyMxCkZ3f_ttxzf2E/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Electricity Transformer Temperature](/datasets/ett-15t.md) | 0.8611 | 0.6260 | 27.3% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bojREKF6107Qc5vp4qeot4-qM5m9OoOXDUAV2p4--Wg/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Electricity Transformer Temperature](/datasets/ett-1h.md) | 1.2996 | 0.9080 | 30.1% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DKrvAyI51WuSc0tHIpLGhVy566z0eCQpJqcv6GN_vCo/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2014)](/datasets/proenfo-gfc14.md) | 0.6915 | 0.4258 | 38.4% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bhbShbYJatrEKUd9X7cN3bJpZs1mhIV3dArq5fOGlOo/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Global Sovereign Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions](/datasets/world-co2-emissions.md) | 3.1855 | 2.7614 | 13.3% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6TUiVYYbcSbLqAdGjNnwnaFnMuvg8dwLa_zPlh13K0/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Hospital Emergency Admissions](/datasets/hospital-admissions-1d.md) | 0.7221 | 0.5544 | 23.2% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19EJb4G_m8boFCahUsyh-hOTRzLmj7N5mXjdLhVNo-Kg/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Hospital Emergency Admissions](/datasets/hospital-admissions-1w.md) | 1.1300 | 0.5815 | 48.5% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1niSxIcOoFEDn1S6PlNanbqKO3DUEYLZ3ir7p-YdNhvE/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Jena Climate & Weather Telemetry](/datasets/jena-weather-1h.md) | 0.5708 | 0.4286 | 24.9% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h6bjnpm9IVjolRMZdRXdlNz_yhJZ9gl8hKhnwcg-a5g/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Monash High-Density Time Series Benchmark](/datasets/m-dense-1d.md) | 0.8778 | 0.7565 | 13.8% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hKgok_NwTgSGP9VC2qXPqStePBZgypWOkfQzCa89qQ8/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Nord Pool Day-Ahead Electricity Prices](/datasets/epf-np.md) | 1.3025 | 0.6327 | 51.4% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IjCahttFge2Sz0mKU7PCG01J433O5umqtnIyCUEqA7E/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Rohlik E-Grocery Daily Fulfillment Orders](/datasets/rohlik-orders-1d.md) | 1.2529 | 1.0524 | 16.0% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1czXBda0Pl0VPRO15U8lwWEgg34-Svu4rxjU0KTyPjBQ/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Rossmann Store Daily & Weekly Sales](/datasets/rossmann-1d.md) | 0.3412 | 0.2455 | 28.0% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/demo_fev_rossmann-1d/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Rossmann Store Daily & Weekly Sales](/datasets/rossmann-1w.md) | 0.6779 | 0.2557 | 62.3% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10ZaGcHgbChttAKplP0GWHe7i7h_viYF0SZO2xmiHH0I/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [Solar Photovoltaic Power Output with Weather](/datasets/solar-with-weather-1h.md) | 0.9660 | 0.6596 | 31.7% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1w11GjfOODfab89jxQwb0-1zhLsfU3BHGBsgB3Sbdslg/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [UCI Air Quality Chemical Gas Sensor Telemetry](/datasets/uci-air-quality-1h.md) | 1.3325 | 0.9341 | 29.9% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_Yuc_guShuaBemWFyo6OI95s4N7YXASSNsAkrYb3mHo/edit?usp=sharing) |
| [US Macroeconomic Consumption & Disposable Income](/datasets/us-consumption-1y.md) | 4.4640 | 4.8070 | 7.1% | **LightGBM** | [Google Sheets Demo](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TrHDQ6arQTQlhLuOQcbgDnLCi0N3GDDJpLiDCkr5ffg/edit?usp=sharing) |
| australian tourism | 1.0897 | 0.6949 | 36.2% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |
| bizitobs l2c 1H | 0.5293 | 0.3745 | 29.2% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |
| boomlet 1062 | 0.9832 | 0.5541 | 43.6% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |
| boomlet 1209 | 0.9928 | 0.7682 | 22.6% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |
| boomlet 1225 | 0.2558 | 0.1994 | 22.0% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |
| boomlet 1230 | 1.4274 | 1.2924 | 9.5% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |
| boomlet 1487 | 0.6315 | 0.4470 | 29.2% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |
| boomlet 1631 | 0.8648 | 0.6219 | 28.1% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |
| boomlet 1855 | 0.6444 | 0.5036 | 21.8% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |
| boomlet 1975 | 0.5089 | 0.2514 | 50.6% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |
| boomlet 2187 | 0.9202 | 0.8353 | 9.2% | **TabPFN-TS-3** | — |

## Canonical Resources
- **HTML Benchmark Page:** [https://carlahq.eu/datasets/comparison/time-series/lightgbm-vs-tabpfn-ts-3](https://carlahq.eu/datasets/comparison/time-series/lightgbm-vs-tabpfn-ts-3)